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ʱ䣺2020/8/23α༭СǿĶתأ

ԭߣChristie Aschwanden

Ϊʲô˵ɲչĽʹࡱ 

5£¹ڷףCOVID-19󱩷ش˰˹ҽԺɣʼڸɭΪµĹء8£ŤתȻ罻Ĺ涨6³ʼɣ˿200ijѾÿԼ120Ϊ㡣9£оԱԤӡģ˹ļĩIJټһԭĴ˿Ѿй¹ڲSARS-CoV-2¶ˡʥ޴ѧѧEster Sabinoͬ¶˹Ѫ6000Ѫ˼⣬Ѱ¹ڲ塣Ƿ֣Ⱦ˿ڱܸߡһʱ66%Sabino˵ŶӵĽ[1]˸ߵĸȾζŵǰԲȻ׸еȺѾС޷һ顪ҲΪȺߣherd immunityһоŶҲóƵĽ[2]ݵһվѡᡣʾ֧ȺߵĿ߲ԡԴSpencer Platt/Getty˹ЩԼشֵƶϣѰȺߵĺƻô󲿷ع鳣̬ͬʱȡһЩʩ֢ȺϾ¹ڲȻչ֧˵ǣвѧ뷨򲡶Ͷƻ˹˹оѧKristian Andersen˵ȥܶ޹Ҳ֤ܸػָ̬ǰûгɹʵֹȺߣ޷ûбҪĴʹࡣȻ뷨Dzϵشҵͺ;ߵԺð䡢Ӣͳ9ᵽȺʱ̬ȻΪherd mentalityһСֿѧҲƲ10³һǿһѧɵŶϷһΪԡGreat Barrington Declarationļ¹ڷ֢սϵ͵˻ع¹ڲһ̶Ⱥ󣬱ʵȺߡļƿһЩʩΣȺˣδϸ˵Եߵõ˰׹֧֣ҶһѧҲ˷¼Ⱥǡûпѧֵ֤֧Σۡ [3]Ҫ¹ڲܸԤȻչˣ϶ԺνȺߡʵȺߵѷʽ⡣ڴˣȻĸ⡣

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ĶܵᱻȾȺʱ޷ɢҲʵȺߡһ㹻˿ڲ׸Уµͻʧ㲻Ҫ˶ߡֻҪ㹻˿߾͹ˡѧѧԺвѧCaroline Buckee˵һ˵ȺΪΧּƻ۵ġյȺдﵽϸˮƽʱЩֻܽ練ӦȺϵͳµȺ壬Ҳ档Buckee˵ҽרᡰȺߡʣڽȺ屣herd protectionΪȺ߲˶Բֻǽ׸Ⱥ벡ԭӴķնѡרһ㲻û£ȺߵһֿõĹߡڱʾҪö˸ȾܸһлϾţе󡣡 ѧԺвѧMarcel Salath˵

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вѧҿԹҪ˿ߣʵȺߡһֵȡڻR0ȫ׸СֻϵȺУһȾƽܸȾĴѧȾвѧҡѧģʦKin On Kwok˵ȺֵĹʽ1C1/R0ÿλȾܸȾԽ࣬Ҫи߱˿ߣʵȺߡȷĴȾԺǿR0һ1218֮䣬óȺֵΪ˿ڵ92%94%ĴȾԽͣԽֵͣҲԽ͡R0˶Ըò׸Уʵ鷢չ仯ΪЩڿԭʱõR0һ汾ЧдΪRtReȺ׸Ա仯˽Ȼ֣ʽܸʵȺߵһ֣ʵУȺ߲ǵǸԶɵġǡǡ෴Ⱥ߸ӦһݶȣԼ˹ս˹ѧвѧGypsyamber DSouza˵ңR0ͶԲ׸еȱɱ䣬Ⱥ߲һ̬ʹȺʵȺߣģȻᷢʽϵ͵ĵ簲ȫҥԵһЩҼSalath˵㷢ֲֵĽʿʼ½Ȼ鱩Щģܴ󣬼ʹѾϸѧʵȺߡռĿӦԤȥﵽģеǸ֡

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ܷʵȺߣһ̶ȡ˿ڵֵļRֵdzУ˵6£ͬڡȾڿJournal of InfectionϷĸ༭вһ[4]Ŷ3·ݵ¹ڷÿ˳30ҵRtЩRtĻϼÿ˿ҪﵽȺֵУRtΪ6.64İֵߡ85%RtΪ1.06Ŀֻͣ5.66%صֵܵͣӳȡ˺ܶʩڵʵֹҵҵȡ˵ȡЩʩȺֵͻ˹һĹأ6¡4º5ܵػĿǰIJٶȻԴMichael Dantas/AFP via GettyȺߵļ㣬ļڵļ޷ӳʵѧоȾѧSamuel Scarpino˵󲿷ȺߵļΪǼûиԤûΪı䣬ࡣ˵ζţΪֵĶݱ仯籣룩Rt½ôһΪָȺߵֵҲı䡱Ŀǰ¹ڲֵĹ10%70%֮䡪Ǹ[5,6]ֵ޵ģ罻ʽЧģScarpino˵ֵ޼Ӵ߽϶˻ȸȾϣҲΪǽӴ˶࣬ǻѲˡЩߡԲ׸ȺеĴͻ١ǣܿʹﵽȺߵֵScarpino˵㷢˶ܳΪߣôܰѹֵ20%30%ļͲ׼ȷ Scarpino͵ǣȺֵƽ60%-70%ҲǴ󲿷ģͼĽο[6] ڼϵij¼ƺر¹ڷһʼǴΧȻھһδֵȺAndersen˵ڼݵʥ͢San Quentin State Prison60%鱻סǰȾˣԲʲô30%˸ȾͻʧAndersen˵ûʲôصİڱࡣ˵ȻѧҿԹȺߵֵ޷֪ʵʱ֣Լ˹ս˹ѧȫвѧCaitlin Rivers˵ʵǣֻжݽлعԷܶȺߵóȷĹ۲ÿҪȵʮԺ˵ 

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оԱΪѰȺǸ뷨ͨԵĸȾʵȺ߼ֱ͸Andersen˵Ҫһˡ5µĵһܣ˹һǰһ4.5[7]8£ټΪ֮ƺֿʼֻ˵˵˹˿ѾʵȺߵƲ⡰ʵԡAndersen˵ֻеһ֡òԵصĽ;úҺܶ࿵߶˳ĽӰ졣˹г5.8¹ڲȾߣⱳжټࡣڣýάȺߵIJԣ񲿳Lena HallengrenʾǸ⡱ȺǡչһDZڽ仹ҡڸȻһдDzԵһ֡˵IJDzȡ󲿷ֹƵ罻롢Ⱥ塢չͽӴ׷١ǿϵͳӦ顣ˣѳƵһɹ䷶Լ˹ս˹ѧͳʾÿ10˵¹ڷڹŲ10ࣨ58.12/10ˣŲ5.23/10ˣIJʣȷﲡıֵҲŲ͵

Ⱥ߻Щ谭

ͨòԭڴȺߣڿ߻Զһδ֤ʵļ衣¹ڲԣȾƺijЩҪӦijʱãȺãڲŸոտʼBuckee˵⣬Ŀǰ޾ԿɿķԲRivers˵оԱԼǷ¹ڲԿ壬޷֪ЩֶܱáͨðļԹ״յݼòֻܱһ꣬Buckee˵Ժؼ裬εIJҲˡ³ڳθȾθȾı棬ٸȾƵԼǵ²ǷдشAndersen˵Ⱦһٶ׸У㽫Զ޷ȻﵽȺߡRivers˵ûħãAndersen˵DZֱʵǴûͨ²ȻʵֹȺߣϧǣ¹ڲҲ⡣ʵȺߵΨһķʽ˵Ҫ֡ƵǶ١ȡأЧΡάֶáһʼǿƴʩеͲ罻ͷܿء⣬֮ǰЩĿ߹ߡ˷ǵøȾɣDSouza˵кܶԭֵǼᶨܼʵʩչܿؾٴ룬ֱЧ֣Ǿһοף1. Buss, L. F. et al. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787 (2020).2. Prowse, T. A. A. et al. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.25.20201939 (2020).3. Alwan, N. A. et al. Lancet https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32153-X (2020).4. Kwok, K. O. et al. J. Infect. 80, e32Ce33 (2020).5. Aguas, R. et al. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762 (2020).6. Gomes, M. G. M. et al. Preprint at medRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893 (2020).7. Orellana, J. D. Y., da Cunha, G. M., Marrero, L., Horta, B. L. & Leite, I. da C. Cad. Sade Pblica 36, e00120020 (2020).ԭThe false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19Ϊⷢ1021յġȻд? nature doi:10.1038/d41586-020-02948-4 ĶԭġĶӢԭ

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